Tom Lemke has a life-changing decision to make.
The Phoenix-area high school pitcher already signed with Nebraska’s baseball team and planned on joining an NU pitching staff that, after a rough season, needs him more than ever.
And then the Texas Rangers came calling.
“I was really excited about it,” Lemke said. “It’s definitely been on my mind the whole year. I had a lot of different emotions – a lot of excitement and relief and a lot of anxiety off my shoulders.”
The ballclub selected Lemke in the 10th round of last week’s Major League Baseball Draft and hopes to make him an offer he can’t refuse.
The towering 6-foot-8, 220-pound right-hander has until Aug. 15 to sign a contract with the Rangers before the club loses his rights, and he officially becomes a Cornhusker.
Is Lemke better off taking the money and getting a jump-start on his quest to someday make it to the major leagues? Or should he take the college education and extra time to develop and get drafted again later?
It’s quite a decision for an 18-year-old to make.
“I’ve thought about it, but it’s all still kind of up in the air,” Lemke said. “I know I’d definitely have a blast at Nebraska, but I’m still weighing my options.”
The waiting game
The fate of Lemke, two fellow incoming freshmen and two current Huskers, all of whom were drafted, are of vital importance to NU coach Mike Anderson.
“We’ve just got to wait. If they sign, it’s tough on us. If they haven’t, we’re OK,” Anderson said.
The MLB Draft has not been kind to Anderson, and his staff in recent years. Since 2007, 15 of the last 20 Husker recruits or non-seniors selected in the draft have jumped ship in favor of the allure of a pro contract and a chance to enter the minor leagues.
Anderson said effects of the mass exodus were evident this spring, when NU finished 25-28-1, its worst season in more than a decade.
“It might have been the biggest influence on this past year than I’ve seen before,” Anderson said. “Last year, almost all our pitchers signed, and it had a major influence.”
Anderson lost weekend starter Aaron Pribanic, starter/reliever Dan Jennings and saves leader Zach Herr to last year’s draft, and recruits Shane Dyer and Curtis Petersen also opted to go pro.
Without them, the Huskers’ pitching staff had a 6.22 earned run average on the season – second-worst in the Big 12 conference – and a 7.32 ERA in conference games. NU pitchers combined for 361 strikeouts and six saves, both league lows.
“We knew going in it was going to be a tough year simply because we were hit so hard by the draft,” Anderson said. “Is it an excuse? No, I don’t have an excuse. It’s just the way college baseball works, everybody gets hit by it at some point in a program, and last year was our year.”
‘All smiles’
The strength of next year’s staff will depend a lot on the decisions of Lemke, NU sophomore Mike Nesseth and incoming freshmen Kurt Giller and Ryan Hander.
Nesseth was ranked the 158th-best prospect in the draft by Baseball America but fell to the 15th round due to his high price tag.
The 6-foot-5 right-hander entered the draft with what Anderson calls his number – the amount of money a club would need to offer as a signing bonus in order for Nesseth to sign. If the organization that drafted him, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, can’t offer him the money he’s looking for, he’ll happily come back to pitch for NU.
“He’s been pretty forthright and honest with us, so we understand where he’s at,” Anderson said. “If his team changes and ups his money, then I do see something happening for him, but other than that I know he wants to be back, too.”
Giller was selected in the 21st round by the Toronto Blue Jays, and Hander went in the 39th round to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
“It was kind of a life-changing phone call,” Giller said. “I was at an all-star game in Kansas City, and I got a phone call when we were warming up. I was all smiles for about 10 minutes after that.”
The 6-foot-2 righty will begin negotiations with the Blue Jays this week. Like Nesseth, Giller has set a number that would force him to consider going pro.
“If they offered $500,000, it would be very, very hard for me to say no,” he said. “(NU pitching) coach (Eric) Newman called me five minutes after I was picked and gave me his opinion, and Coach Anderson was telling me about how I need to make a mature decision. I don’t lean one way or the other yet.”
‘Kids start to drift’
NU already has one draft casualty this summer in top recruit Geoff Baldwin.
The first baseman from Grand Junction, Colo., was selected by the Kansas City Royals in the 10th round – two spots ahead of Lemke – and quickly signed a contract with the club.
“We kind of anticipated that,” Anderson said. “We thought Geoff was leaning more towards professional baseball. If you would have asked me nine months ago, there was no doubt in my mind he’d be in college, but kids start to drift in different directions, and he drifted towards pro baseball.”
NU’s offensive leader this spring, junior outfielder Adam Bailey, was selected in the 38th round of the draft. Although he’s already announced he intends to return, Anderson won’t hold his breath until the signing deadline passes.
Bailey was drafted by the New York Yankees, and Anderson said he wouldn’t be surprised if the notoriously deep-pocketed ballclub made him a strong offer.
“Let’s be honest, he’s not coming back until August 16,” Anderson said. “He was drafted by an organization who has some money and somebody who may not take no for an answer.
“I’m glad he’s coming back at this time right now, but they could change the offer and make something else up, and things would change,” he said. “Adam’s a good young man, and he understands the process, and I think he has a strong loyalty to us.”
‘Life-changing money’
The financial aspect of being drafted makes the process all the more difficult.
Baseball programs can only offer partial scholarships to recruits. The NCAA mandates that Anderson must divide 11.7 scholarships among the players on his roster – NU had 33 players on its 2009 team.
While getting an education is valuable, turning a pro contract down can be difficult for a player who’s already paying for a portion of his education.
The amount of money offered by professional organizations differs with each club and each pick. Almost all minor league players receive miniscule contracts, so the real money is in the signing bonus.
Although the typical player selected in the middle rounds of the draft would likely receive a signing bonus offer between $10,000 and $50,000, a number of players picked in those slots have received and accepted offers of more than $100,000 in recent years.
Each negotiation is different and varies on a number of factors. A prospect’s physical talent, potential and injury history all help determine their value, but there are other variables.
Having a college to fall back on can provide drafted players with leverage, and a club desperate to nab the prospect might overpay to prevent him from opting for college ball.
But Anderson is adamant that if a player isn’t one of the top picks in the draft, it’s not worth taking the professional offer.
“In my mind, you’ve got to be a first-, second- or third-round pick,” he said. “If you go in the first, second or third, then you start to consider it. That doesn’t mean you should do it, but at that point you start to consider it because that money is life-changing money.
“Anything past the third round, it’s just not life-changing money,” he said.
‘No change in philosophy’
The bad luck Anderson has had in recent years with recruits going pro isn’t an easy problem to fix.
He spends more than two years recruiting players to come to Nebraska and building a bond with the recruit and his family. He and his staff work to convince the families that a recruit’s best option is to come to Nebraska and continue his development. The pro contracts can come later.
“And then one year later, professional baseball drafts him,” he said. “If it’s high enough, he’ll go. I’m not sure you can change your recruiting philosophy based on what happens a year later.”
So for now, Anderson will have to be content with playing the waiting game.
“I’d like to get two of those four pitchers,” he said. “If we get two, I’m going to feel pretty good about it.
“Compared to the last few years, I’m a little bit more comfortable, but it’s still going to be difficult. We’ll see.”
maxolson@dailynebraskan.com
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