BALTERS: Iran’s civil unrest indicates imminent change

Overshadowed these past few weeks by underwear bombs over Detroit, health care votes, Tiger Woods' exploits, the anticipation of the final season of "Lost" and Colt McCoy getting bribed to fake an injury in the title game, the recent fervor of protests in Iran deserve an equal amount of attention. Just as urgent, still, is how we respond to the new, developing situation.

And yes, it is indeed accurate to characterize the situation in Iran as fast approaching a unique threshold. It has at least elevated itself to another level of intensity since the wave of post-election protests this summer. Though, it also seems to have reached a turning point. After this summer, one would have assumed Iran's government had to at least make some changes or offer some kind of concessions in order to stay in power. A myriad of signs from this recent round of riots, however, suggest both that the government has failed to take necessary steps and that Iran is fast approaching a point of no return.

To address the first claim, it now appears the Iranian government is after anyone who isn't them. The initial attacks by police that resulted in droves of wounded protesters occurred on one of the holiest days in the Shiite Islamic calendar.

The unrest was triggered by the death of Hussein Ali Montazeri, a leading Ayatollah in the opposition movement. Keep in mind, the official name of Iran is the Islamic Republic of Iran. The religious overlords and their approved government have always been strict, but dodged criticism as guardians of piety. When they violently suppress their citizens who are marching in the name of a religious man, on a religious day, they come off as merely interested in power. Ideology, the government's greatest strength, seems to no longer be in play now that Iran has its gloves off.

More details from Tehran this December begin to make it clear that infringing on sanctity and Muslim leaders could very well do harm to Iran's legitimacy. Protesters this past month sang songs from the coup on the Shah, an event officially known as the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran's government draws much of its symbolic authority from that successful revolt that led to its establishment. It's fast losing that authority, in part, because of targeting dissenting Muslim clerics. More than songs, though, suggest that the symbolism milked from that upheaval has shifted toward the current dissidents.

The surge in aggression could signal a scenario similar to 1979 is fast approaching. When lashing out at Iranian police hand-to-hand combat style and burning their cars Grand Theft Auto style – as they did this past December – the protesters channeled the revolutionary spirit of decades past.

It certainly doesn't bode well for Iran's pattern of reaction. Initially, they reacted to the summer elections that presumably gave power to reformers. They falsified results to retain Ahmadinejad as president. Then, they reacted to outcries against unfair elections by locking up many leading members of the opposition. The Iranian resistance responded more severely this time, and still the government reacted, reportedly killing the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the man the opposition claims won the summer election. They also opened fire on crowds and shut down Internet access and other media for days.

With the Iranian resistance becoming more and more stubborn and an Iranian government just as stalwart and unwilling to comprise as ever, something must give way in the coming year. With the vast majority of the population being young, reform-minded, opposition sympathizers, the future looks bleak for the powers in Iran. Remember this region, and this country in particular, has a "taste" for revolutions.

This begs the question obvious to proactive Americans: "What can we do?" It's important to understand we can't get our fingernails too dirty or our hands too bloody for reasons both general and contextual. The unrest that brought the unpopular Shah to power was instigated by the U.S. We set buildings on fire and started riots. To substantially and directly aid the current rioters, we could paint them as Western puppets, like the local groups used by the CIA in the 1950s.