Nebraska may finally start tapping into that stack of unused pink slips.
Although the state has stayed afloat while much of the country has been floundering in the economic recession, monthly unemployment rates indicate Nebraska may soon fall to the same fate.
While the country has been in a recession for more than a year, Nebraska’s dominant industries have insulated the state from rising unemployment rates.
“Certainly the whole agriculture area has a tendency to help for a kind of stabilizing effect,” said Phil Baker, the labor market information director at the Nebraska Labor Department. “(And) while we have a fair amount of manufacturing, it doesn’t seem to be the type of manufacturing that gets hit quite as hard.”
During the last three months of 2008, the Midwest and Plains regions lost about 1 percent of jobs, compared to 4 percent nationwide, according to the Mid-America Business Conditions survey. The survey included Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
The large number of government and education jobs in Lincoln, specifically, has kept the city’s unemployment particularly low. The Lincoln Metropolitan Statistical Area, including Lancaster and Seward counties, has the seventh lowest unemployment rate of 369 large metro areas nationwide, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But the recession and unemployment that has been infecting the rest of the country is starting to creep into the Midwest.
“The reason Nebraska’s moving into recession territory right now is because of the decline of the rest of the U.S. economy and the global economy,” said Ernie Goss, a Creighton University economics professor who oversaw the Mid-America Business Conditions survey.
Traditionally, Baker said, it takes about four to six months for economic recessions to hit the Midwest. Now Lincoln is seeing its unemployment rate rise, though at a slower pace than in many other places.
To be considered unemployed, someone must be out of work, but eligible and actively seeking a job within the past month.
“It’s probably a little worse than the numbers imply, because people may lose their jobs and (now) aren’t looking or leaving (the area),” Goss said.
As the year goes on, Lincoln’s unemployment rates will likely be affected by the federal stimulus package, especially for government jobs.
But despite the Midwestern lag in recession effects, Nebraska should keep in step when the country recovers.
“Just because (Nebraska) went in later doesn’t mean it should come out later,” Goss said. “I expect we’ll come out of it together.”
andreavasquez@dailynebraskan.com
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