Daily Nebraskan

Issue date: 4/24/08 Section: Opinion

One doesn't need Miss Cleo's assistance to figure out how this presidential election is going to play out come November.

Sen. John McCain is going to win.

It is an admittedly cynical position, but with about six months before the general election, one can kind of get a feel for where the voting public is headed.

Unless something drastic happens, there isn't a scenario where the Democrats can win.

Suppose Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Despite her double digit Pennsylvania victory, her position is still the same. The only way she can get her party's nomination is to persuade the glorified superdelegates and overturn the popular vote, the elected delegate vote, or both.

Such a move would fracture the Democrat party in two and result in an instant loss.

Now, suppose Sen. Barack Obama is the nominee. Unfortunately, the year of continuing war and economic downturn will hurt him more than it should because of his presumptive "uncertainty." The onslaught of these attacks, coupled with an America in turmoil, has been a turning point in his candidacy.

More so than "WrightGate," "PinGate," or "BitterGate," the attacks by Republicans and Hillary on Obama's "uncertainty" and "untested abilities" as a leader are particularly difficult in "uncertain times."

The "question mark" on Obama his opponents are touting is a bit unfair, as his time in the Senate is comparable to say, George W. Bush's or Clinton's years in government.

And if Obama were running against someone with fewer federal years, one could project a whole different ball game.

But he isn't. He is running against John McCain, who has been a federal government staple since Ancient Babylonia.

McCain himself is really the key. See, unlike Democrats, Republicans really don't like losing, so they chose the man least likely to do so.

He can separate himself enough from the Bush administration to win. At a time when presumably the GOP presidential bid should be in shambles, McCain isn't hurting very much at all, really.

Why? For one reason, for the first time in 56 years, there is no incumbent. "Tricky" Dick Cheney did his party enormous service by staying out.

The war is quite unpopular but not quite unpopular enough. The 2004 election illustrated that public opposition to the war does not necessarily translate into votes against the GOP.

War supporters may respond that its unpopularity does not necessarily reflect a desire to pull out right away. It may simply be Americans are recognizing going into Iraq was a mistake to begin with.

Unfortunately for Obama, his poignant and on-the-money speech in October 2003 will begin to sound like "I told you so" to certain voters. The speech was a useful way to distinguish himself from Clinton, but it doesn't support him in the "What we should do now" argument he will have against McCain.

McCain's position will be, of course, that he is responsible for the winning troop surge strategy. Its long-term effectiveness is dubious at best, but relatively low death tolls and violence coupled with an economy which doesn't yet reflect its massive cost could very well make continuing the war palatable.

His desire to close the Guantanamo Bay prison and "expedite judicial proceedings" on the remaining prisoners further his appeal in this regard.

It is no secret there has been a cozy relationship with John McCain and the media over the years. His frequent appearances on the Daily Show and as Saturday Night Live Host have helped his image. His status as a war hero gives him a natural scotch guard from opponents and the press.

With his extensive record as an independent-appealing "maverick," most of the attacks on McCain are reserved for his volatile temperament, which in the minds of voters can actually be kind of endearing.

A 1982 Republican opponent of McCain called his first wife Carol for "dirt" to use against his congressional bid. She refused, and when McCain encountered his opponent later he said: "I understand you called my ex-wife. I want you to know that, campaign aside, politics aside, you ever do anything like that again, anything against a person in my family, I will personally beat the shit out of you."

Unsurprisingly, the nastiest attacks on McCain have come from his own party, as the 1982 incident illustrates, as well as the 2000 South Carolina Karl Rove smear that his adopted daughter from Mother Theresa's orphanage in Bangladesh was his illegitimate love-child.

The too-often overlooked Hispanic vote may be a key ingredient in McCain's success as well. This voting block normally votes heavily in favor of democrats, who are relying on them in states like California, New Mexico and Florida.

McCain's co-authorship of the largely unpopular Z-Visa bill may actually be of great aide to him in the election, however, as it makes McCain almost indistinguishable from Obama on the issue of comprehensive immigration reform.

There is often a period of adjustment when one's favored party loses the election. It may as well begin now. Solace can come in the form of a president much better than the current, and a democratically controlled congress as a check and balance. For those who refuse to give up: perseverance is admirable, but perhaps ultimately futile.

Clint Waltman is a senior biology and psychology major. Reach him at clintwaltman@dailynebraskan.com.

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